Academic Optimism – McKinsey the new IDC

So, I’ve always held McKinsey in high regard until a “Chart focus alert” I received today stating that IT momentum/plunge is done.  It may be, but what the report doesn’t surface is the “type” of spending.  Software, telco, infrastructure or services.  This reminds me of a reckless report from IDC in 2000 about a specific market being like 4 Trillion dollars by 2012.  The $4 Trillion cite by 2012 showed up in everyone’s presentation for like six months, until they realized the math would never work.   So here is the chart which bothered me:

SOURCE: http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Energy_Resources_Materials/Steel/Industry_trends_in_the_downturn_A_snapshot_2264

Those McKinsey folks make pretty charts, but pretty doesn’t mean valuable.  In all fairness, they are mainly valuable.   While I appreciate this “think happy thoughts chart”, not sure it delivers the necessary value to be branded McKinsey.   Here is a quote from the article, you be the judge on their commitment to the data/chart:

As the economy enters the current slowdown, the growth of IT intensity is closer to its historic trend—even slightly below the 10-year average. While most companies are reviewing their IT budgets in an effort to reduce overall spending, many are trying to maintain high-priority investments. The uncertainty of today’s business environment makes it perilous to predict technology spending, but it does seem likely that the sector’s experience could be more in line with historic trends than it was in 2001.

I wonder if some folks are a few publications light on 2008 quota.